Overview

The AMR Targets (Monthly) indicator is designed for position traders who need precise medium-term price projections. By leveraging the Average Monthly Range (AMR), this tool dynamically calculates and plots key price levels, allowing traders to identify strategic entry, exits, and stop-loss zones. With its focus on monthly timeframes, the indicator provides a structured approach to managing trades over extended periods.

How it works

The AMR Targets (Monthly) indicator calculates:

1. Scaling Target (50% AMR) : A conservative target with high probability (>90% accuracy).
2. Primary Target (75% AMR) : A slightly more ambitious target with strong probability (>80% accuracy).
3. Secondary Target (100% AMR) : Represents the full Average Daily Range with moderate probability (>50% accuracy).
4. Extended Target (125% AWMR) : An aggressive target for volatile market conditions (<50% accuracy).

The targets are derived from the AMR, which is calculated as the average f the (H-L) range over the past 10 months, by default. These levels provide traders with clear benchmarks for price movement, helping to optimize entry, exit, and risk management strategies.

The targets are realtime calculated from current month’s low and high and projected above and below current price. 

Example

With an average of 18$ range/month JBL reaches the 100% AMR target on mid January 2025. The move has developed between the low at 142,47$ and the highs at 160,47$.

Settings

• PERIODS: Define the number of months for calculating the monthly range. Default is 10 but can be expanded to analyze broader price ranges.
• TARGETS: Plots the target levels on the chart, as defined above
• HL: Plots the current high and low of the month
• AMR: Calculate and shows on chart the AMR value calculated on the PERIODS defined (i.e. the Average Monthly Range on X Periods)

Benefits for traders

• Set realistic monthly goals: Use precise levels to manage trades and set profit-taking levels
• Enhance risk management: Plan stop-loss levels based on key AMR targets to minimize risk
• Improve decision-making: Trade with confidence using probability-based target levels
• Adapt to market volatility: React to changing market conditions with self-adjusting targets

Who can use it?

• Position traders: Identify mid-term price objectives and optimize multi-month trade setups
• Swing traders: Leverage monthly AMR targets to align with mid-term strategies
• Market Analysts: Gain insights into long-term price behavior and volatility
• Portfolio Managers: Use AMR-based levels to optimize medium-term asset allocation

Reference

The methodology behind the AMR Targets (Monthly) Indicator is inspired by established principles of volatility-based analysis, including insights from Frank Ochoa’s teachings. This indicator has been independently developed and optimized for ProRealTime to provide traders with an efficient and reliablke tool for intraday target forecasting.