I tested over 1000+ system, some is loss and some is profit, and I will select the profitable system to you. And the selected system, I monitored over 6 months to 2 years. Some system is very nice in the backtest, but in live, it will be horrible.
You may think that the actual profit is very low, but the contract size is only 1 and the MDD is only $43. And less transactions with high probability. Details see the following information.
Actual result from Mar 2022 to Jul 2022.
The product has trial version with 1 week.
Product name: Real Acc_USDCAD_Intraday_5M
Instruments: USDCAD (Major)
Duration: Intraday trade
Strategy type: reaction on oversold and overbought
Timeframe: 5 Min, UTC+2 Berlin
Reinvestment function: The algo included reinvestment option, you can select fixed contract size or reinvestment factor
Stop loss: 0.25%
Target profit: 0.2%
Actual result (you can also refer to the photo)
Live account period: 8 Mar 2022 to 29 Jul 2022
Net profit: $620
Total gains: $1,376
Total loss: $756
Max runup: $104
Max drawdown: $43
Winning ratio: 58%
Contract size: 1 contract and no reinvestment
Backtest result (no reinvestment) (1 year result only in line with the 1 year license) (for reference only)
Backtest result (no reinvestment) (100K result)
Backtest result vs Actual result (same period and same contract size)
This system, the backtest seems very very nice, but in live, the result has difference with the backtest. Although the profit is less 70% ($1,993 vs $620), the actual result is not bad, if compare the max drawdown ($281 vs $43).
Backtest result (reinvestment) (1 year result only in line with the 1 year license) (for reference only)
Start from 1 contract
Reinvestment factor: 1.5
Net profit = $1.437K
If based on the actual result vs backtest result, the variance is 70%, the reinvestment profit is estimated $431K
(Please don’t over optimisate the reinvestment factor, the detail explanation will be included in the code)
If you have any question, please let me know.